Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the tension caused by the introduction of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its retaliation: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The succession of opposing developments captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: positive announcements are issued from different nations. Considerable effort is devoted on restraining certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "peace".
Nocturnal Warfare
As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's exposure was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from across the border, a ability enabled by timely intelligence. From vantage locations, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been scrambled to engage hostile guided weapons streaked across the sky – advanced fighter aircraft supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense activated: multiple launches fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, probably supplied through allied countries. Every deployment shakes the surroundings, shaking the windows. The instant of fear quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: maybe the hostile projectile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Continuous Dangers
Not long after, a large-caliber weapon engaged a drone in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – almost certainly Western-made equipment. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the enemy aircraft – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Intermittently, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the early updates: seven people killed, destruction and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those full day illustrated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a dependence that neighboring countries are evidently unprepared to fill in the short term.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from US administration sparked intense emotion, discussion and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after earlier high-level meetings and bilateral conferences.
Every new initiative from American administration adheres to the consistent cycle: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with other European capitals, succeeds in resisting. They manage the tension but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, certainly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is tempting to accuse certain parties of persistently promoting Kremlin's demands. But that does not seem to be the whole story. Washington works based on a principle understood by international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have been unable to protect through force. The White House presumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the territory that it presently holds in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, American administration does minimal to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from assuming that the current condition will not change more in its advantage in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is confident that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its supporters are approaching exhaustion. Their incentive to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be multiple initiatives to end hostilities, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, progressively conceding people and territory but preventing a total frontline collapse until circumstances change in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a ceasefire. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and achieve global acclaim, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to rally Ukrainians around the national cause against any plan Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their attention does not move to internal issues. And although their mission will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to eliminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by US administration, pushback by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with calming attempts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all achieved their purpose.
While new proposals based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off political attacks from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and demonstrate specific hesitation to alter the situation, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to repel nightly air assaults will, for the foreseeable future, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
