A decade following the UK embarked on a hurried public vote that divided the nation and triggered disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and voters drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and transformative referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," the commentator stated. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What haunts everybody, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We do not want a referendum on a yes-no, vague proposition whose consequences have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a public vote on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups claim that moment is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in academia but very few politicians or activists are willing to participate with even the fundamentals. For instance, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Federal?"
Volume's Strategy
In the book, neither author endorses unification or the current situation. Each authors two essays that strive for objectivity in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates cover identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and provoke dialogue.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens claim they favour unification but refuse greater financial contributions or adopting a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland must establish what the proposal from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
McBride thinks a referendum in his generation is likely and that it may take place suddenly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, valid arguments, he commented. "One side will prevail here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has possesses valuable insights to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Request for Broader Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish question."
